Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match
Arsenal are looking to continue their Premier League title charge as they visit Anfield to take on Liverpool on Sunday.
The Gunners are starting down the barrel of a 12-match winless run at the famed Liverpool ground, without a win since 2012, and it’s even worse when you break down how badly they’ve performed in that stretch of games at this ground.
Yet this year just feels different, as Arsenal are top of the league by eight points and shooting for their first top flight championship since 2004. Every point counts at this stage, and Arsenal fans will probably be happy to escape this horror ground with a draw, but knowing Manchester City have a game in hand, victory here would not only expel the Anfield demons, but give them an enormous boost towards claiming the trophy.
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Liverpool vs Arsenal odds
While Arsenal are starting down a long winless streak at Anfield, the Gunners are still slight favourites on the road as they lead the Premier League. Liverpool, understandably given their inconsistency this season, are thought to be slight underdogs here, although they’re still given a good chance to come away with all three points at their home fortress.
Goals are expected to flow, as the over is a massive favourite and both teams are thought very likely to score.
| Liverpool win |
Draw | Arsenal win |
Both teams to score Y / N |
Over / Under 2.5 goals |
LIV -0.5 |
ARS +0.5 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (USA) |
+170 | +270 | +140 | -190 / +130 | -165 / +115 | -185 | +130 |
| Sports Interaction (Canada) |
+166 | +257 | +134 | -217 / +135 | -175 / +126 | -179 | +133 |
| SkyBet (UK) |
9/5 | 13/5 | 11/8 | 1/2, 6/4 | 4/7, 5/4 | — | — |
| Neds (Australia) |
2.80 | 3.50 | 2.53 | 1.50 / 2.45 | 1.62 / 2.30 | — | — |
| Dafabet (India) |
2.75 | 3.62 | 2.32 | 1.53 / 2.40 | 1.64 / 2.25 | 1.61 | 2.32 |
Liverpool vs Arsenal: Three things to know
Liverpool vs Arsenal match facts
- Date: Sunday, April 9
- Kickoff Time: 3:30 pm ET / 8:30 pm BST / 5:30 am AEST (Mon, Apr. 10)
- Location: Anfield (Liverpool, England)
- Official: Paul Tierney
- Last meeting: Arsenal 3-2 Liverpool (Oct. 9, 2022 | Premier League)
Liverpool vs Arsenal team news
Liverpool’s injury problems have been well documented over the past few months, but it seems to be easing slowly. Luis Diaz could possibly return from his long-term injury in this match, but would likely need a few substitute appearances before he’s ready to start. Thiago is also back in training and could return, while Virgil van Dijk will be back from his illness. Naby Keita is probably out here but should be back soon, but Stefan Bajcetic and Calvin Ramsey are out for the season.
For the visitors, William Saliba missed out last game with a back problem, and he could be in danger of missing this match as well. Eddie Nketiah could be sidelined too with his ankle injury, and the pair of Mohamed Elneny and Takehiro Tomiyasu are both definitely out.
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Liverpool vs Arsenal key stats
- Arsenal have not won at Anfield outright since a Premier League meeting in September of 2012, a run of 12 straight matches without a win. Their only victory of any kind came in the 2020/21 EFL Cup fourth round as they won on penalties after a 0-0 draw.
- In fact, during that 12-game winless run at Anfield, Arsenal have not lost a match by a single goal. They have either drawn (five times) or been beaten by multiple goals (7 times), with the average margin of defeat at 3.14 goals.
- William Saliba has been dribbled past just three times this season. That’s the fewest of all Premier League players with at least 2000 minutes in league action this season. His centre-back partner Gabriel, dribbled past seven times, is tied for fourth amongst the same group.
Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+270)
- Against the spread lean: Liverpool +0.5 (-185)
- Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal
Everything logically and statistically points towards an Arsenal win in this match, as Liverpool have been smashed by injuries and cannot produce any kind of consistency this season. The Reds were horrid against Chelsea last time out in the comedic 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge, lending further credence that this team can be well beaten on any day.
Yet it’s just too difficult to get past the Anfield horrors that Arsenal have suffered through of late. Sometimes, while not exactly logical, that stuff just matters. For that reason, we’re splitting the difference and running with a draw.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: best bet
- Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
- Odds: -105 (BetMGM)
While the hosts have been relatively evenly spread across both halves both offensively and defensively this season, Arsenal are the wild card in this match that have us backing second half drama.
Not only do these teams often play funky matches that could feature another late twist or turn, but Arsenal have been the best defensive team in the first half of games this season. Even without Williams Saliba, this Gunners side will know how to navigate the first 45 minutes, having conceded just nine goals before the break all year, but 18 after halftime.
Additionally, Arsenal have scored the most second-half goals in the league, with their 41 even more than Man City and Tottenham, the other two great second-half teams. Back the scoring to come after the break.
Liverpool vs Arsenal prop bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 goals
- Odds: +115 (BetMGM)
The over is so skewed in this match, so I’m taking the value offered by a lack of goals. Sure, William Saliba is likely out, and yes, these two teams have good attacking talent, but there is every reason to believe a low score here is possible.
Given Arsenal’s struggles at Anfield, they may be satisfied with a point knowing that still gives them a good push towards the Premier League title. Additionally, these two teams have gone under the 2.5 goal total in three of their last four meetings across all competitions, and there have been two scoreless draws between them in the last three games at Anfield. Even Liverpool, who are defensively frail, have gone under the total in four of their last seven games, with three clean sheets in that span.
While conventional wisdom says these two teams can put up a huge total, like they did at the Emirates back in October, there is real value here on the under.
Liverpool vs Arsenal live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with fuboTV in USA
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | — | Peacock |
| Canada | — | Fubo Canada |
| UK | Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League |
Sky GO |
| Australia | — | Optus Sport |
| New Zealand | Sky Sport Premier League | Sky Sport NOW |
| India | Star Sports Select 2 | Jio TV, Hotstar VIP |
| Hong Kong | Now Premier League (Ch. 620-621) |
Now Player |
| Malaysia | Astro SuperSport 3 |
Astro GO, sooka |
| Singapore | Hub Premier (Ch. 221-223) |
StarHub TV+ |
UK: This match will be broadcast live in the UK via Sky Sports’ TV and streaming platforms.
USA: This match will be streamed exclusively on NBC’s Peacock with options to view in English and Spanish.
Canada: Every Premier League game this season is live streaming exclusively via Fubo in Canada.
Australia: Fans in Australia can stream every match live and on demand on Optus Sport.
Published at Sun, 09 Apr 2023 08:46:09 +0000
