Introduction: A Strategic Rift Reaches a Breaking Point
On July 1, 2025, Azerbaijan publicly condemned Russia over what it called “unacceptable violence” during police operations in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg, where two ethnic Azerbaijani men were killed. The fallout from this incident, which involved allegations of police brutality and ethnic targeting, has triggered the worst diplomatic rift between Baku and Moscow in decades — and it may be a turning point for Russia’s fading influence in the South Caucasus.
This post examines how this crisis unfolded, what it reveals about deeper political fractures, and why this may mark the beginning of a lasting geopolitical shift.
1. The Yekaterinburg Incident: A Spark in a Powder Keg
In late June, Russian security forces raided a restaurant in Yekaterinburg to arrest two Azerbaijani brothers, Ziyaddin and Guseyn Safarov, who were accused of involvement in a 24-year-old murder and other criminal activities. The suspects died during the operation — one reportedly of a heart attack, the other under “uncertain circumstances.”
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry responded with rare fury, accusing Russian authorities of using “disproportionate force” and “brutal tactics” against ethnic Azerbaijanis. Relatives claimed they were beaten, tortured with electric shocks, and coerced into signing up for military service in Ukraine — a claim that has ignited outrage across Azerbaijani media.
Video: Azerbaijan-Russia Relations Under Strain — Explained
Watch this in-depth analysis on the recent diplomatic fallout between Baku and Moscow following the controversial police raids in Yekaterinburg. The video explores the political context, public reaction, and regional consequences of the incident.
2. Diplomatic Fallout: Sanctions, Suspensions, and Arrests
In response, Baku took concrete diplomatic steps:
- Arrested two Russian intelligence officers operating in Azerbaijan
- Shut down a Kremlin-funded media outlet
- Cancelled Russian-backed cultural events across the country
President Ilham Aliyev further escalated tensions by openly criticizing Russia’s internal policies and accusing the Kremlin of fueling xenophobic violence against Azerbaijani migrants.
3. Ethnic Tensions and Russia’s “Internal Enemy” Doctrine
Experts say the Yekaterinburg operation is part of a broader pattern in Russia’s domestic politics, where ethnic minorities — including Ukrainians, Tajiks, and Azerbaijanis — are portrayed as internal threats during times of political pressure.
“This wasn’t just a tragic incident,” said Emil Mustafayev, a political analyst in Baku. “It reflects the systemic use of minorities as scapegoats in Russian society.”
Azerbaijani migrants in Russia, estimated at over 2 million, have long complained about police harassment, random ID checks, and ethnic slurs, even when carrying Russian passports. Many work in street trade and flower retail — industries often stereotyped by Russian ultranationalists.
4. Media and Public Backlash: A War of Narratives
Azerbaijani news outlets have published graphic images of the victims’ bruises and accounts of masked Russian officers storming homes, terrifying children, and torturing elderly relatives. Social media in Azerbaijan exploded with hashtags condemning Russian brutality and calling for the protection of diaspora communities abroad.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, in a cautious statement, expressed “regret” but insisted that the operation was a domestic law enforcement issue, not a political one. However, his remarks failed to calm the storm.
5. Azerbaijan’s Geopolitical Pivot: From Moscow to Ankara
This latest crisis comes on the heels of a years-long shift in Azerbaijani foreign policy:
- Baku has deepened military ties with Turkey and modernized its army with Turkish drones
- Azerbaijan publicly backed Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war
- President Aliyev boycotted Russia’s May 9 Victory Parade in Moscow
- Azerbaijani media often portrays the Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh as ineffective and manipulative
As a result, Azerbaijan is increasingly aligning itself with Turkey, the West, and regional independence, moving away from Russia’s orbit.
6. The Shadow of Karabakh and the Ghosts of the Past
The rift also reopens old wounds related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Many Azerbaijani families fled to Russia during the 1990s war. The Safarov brothers, now dead, were part of this displaced community.
Russia’s historically ambiguous role in the conflict — supplying arms to Armenia while brokering “neutral” peace deals — has long fueled distrust. The 2020 war, won decisively by Azerbaijan with Turkish backing, diminished Moscow’s credibility as a regional power broker.
7. Russia’s Response: Pressure, Propaganda, and Paranoia
Rather than seeking de-escalation, Russian state media has ramped up anti-Azerbaijani narratives, portraying Baku as a puppet of NATO and Turkey. Intelligence reports suggest that Russia has increased surveillance on Azerbaijani activists and journalists within its borders.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s growing alignment with Armenia and Iran further isolates Azerbaijan from its northern neighbor.
Conclusion: A Relationship Beyond Repair?
The death of two Azerbaijani men in Yekaterinburg may seem like a single incident — but it’s a symbol of something much larger. It exposes the cracks in a fragile relationship built on outdated geopolitical assumptions.
As Azerbaijan asserts its independence, modernizes its alliances, and defends its diaspora abroad, Moscow finds itself increasingly alienated from a region it once dominated.
Unless significant diplomatic repair efforts are made, this may be the beginning of a permanent Azerbaijan-Russia split — with deep consequences for regional stability, trade, and power balances across Eurasia.
