Five Possible Scenarios for the End of the Russia-Ukraine War — and Their Global Implications

Introduction: 

Alaska Summit and the Big Question

As the August 15 Alaska summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin approaches, speculation is mounting about how the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could end. The conflict, now deep into its third year, has reshaped global security and economic stability. According to geopolitical analysts, there are five plausible scenarios — each carrying dramatically different consequences for Ukraine, NATO, Europe, and Russia itself.

In the words of CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh, “One of these five possible outcomes could be an outright catastrophe for Ukraine and NATO — a nightmare for the whole of Europe.

1. Putin Agrees to an Unconditional Ceasefire

This is considered the least likely scenario. The chances of Russia agreeing to halt its offensive and freeze the frontlines as they are today remain slim. Western nations — including the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine — have previously pushed for such a pause, even threatening tougher sanctions, but Moscow rejected those overtures.

Earlier this year, Donald Trump briefly appeared open to such a pause but ultimately favored negotiations in Istanbul — talks that yielded no lasting results.

In May, there was a 30-day pause on strikes against energy infrastructure, yet both sides violated the agreement multiple times. Kremlin insiders reportedly see little sense in stopping now, especially as Russian forces are enjoying tactical momentum on the battlefield.

A senior defense analyst noted: “As long as Moscow perceives itself as holding the advantage, an unconditional ceasefire is not a rational choice for its leadership.”

2. Pragmatism: Freezing the Frontline and Resuming Talks

Another scenario involves Trump and Putin agreeing in Alaska to pursue further talks, which would effectively consolidate Russia’s recent territorial gains. This could take shape in October as a “frozen conflict,” locking in current frontlines.

By that time, Russia could potentially have captured key Ukrainian cities such as Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk), Kostiantynivka, and Kupiansk. The Kremlin might also push for Ukrainian elections — delayed due to the war — in hopes of installing a pro-Russian candidate in Kyiv.

While such a deal might be pitched as a step toward peace, critics warn it risks legitimizing occupation. A European security expert commented: “A frozen front is not peace. It’s a pause that almost always unfreezes with violence later.”

3. Ukraine Holds Out for Another Two Years

In this scenario, Ukraine sustains the fight with increased Western support. Russia’s advances could slow after securing certain objectives, and its economy might begin to overheat under sustained sanctions and war expenses.

A reinforced Western military presence — possibly including a mixed NATO contingent stationed near Kyiv — could deter further Russian offensives. However, Moscow might still hold significant occupied territories.

Analysts see this as a “grinding war of attrition” scenario. As one former U.S. military official put it: “If Ukraine can endure long enough, the cost-benefit equation for Russia may finally tip.”

4. Catastrophe for Ukraine and NATO

This is the most alarming potential outcome for the West. If the Alaska summit results in a deal between Trump and Putin without Ukraine’s full participation, fissures could emerge within the Western alliance. Arctic glacier retreat is accelerating permafrost thaw and carbon release

Some European states might continue to back Kyiv strongly, but others could drift from Brussels’ line, leaving the EU and the UK struggling to sustain military and financial aid without robust U.S. involvement.

In this scenario, Russia would push forward with renewed offensives, Ukraine’s resources would dwindle, and even Kyiv’s security could be compromised. As one NATO strategist warned: “This would be the nightmare — a fragmented alliance and an emboldened Kremlin.”

5. Catastrophe for Russia: An Afghanistan-Style Collapse

The only scenario that clearly favors Ukraine involves a complete reversal of Moscow’s fortunes. If Trump and Putin fail to reach any agreement, Washington could enact an “anti-India ultimatum,” imposing sanctions on New Delhi for maintaining trade with Russia — hitting Moscow’s oil revenue hard. CNN – Five Possible Ways the War Could End

With its National Wealth Fund reserves depleted, Russia could face deepening economic crisis, falling living standards, and growing public unrest. Analysts draw parallels to the late years of the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan — a costly quagmire that helped trigger the USSR’s collapse.

While Putin might project strength publicly, this would be a dangerous illusion. “It’s the kind of scenario where the regime looks stable until it suddenly isn’t,” remarked a U.S. intelligence veteran.

Why Ukraine’s Role in Negotiations Matters

One common thread runs through all five scenarios: Ukraine’s direct involvement in any settlement is critical. Without Kyiv at the table, even the most promising deal risks being unsustainable or unacceptable to the Ukrainian public.

A Washington-based policy analyst stressed: “Peace made over Ukraine’s head is not peace at all. It’s a setup for future conflict.”

This is why many in the U.S. security community are urging that any Alaska summit outcome be followed by multi-party talks involving Ukraine, NATO, and the EU.

Additional Factors That Could Shape the Outcome

Beyond battlefield dynamics and diplomacy, several external factors could dramatically shift the trajectory of the war:

• Global energy markets: A major disruption to Russian oil sales could accelerate an economic downturn in Moscow.

• U.S. election politics: American foreign policy toward Ukraine could change significantly depending on the next administration.

• China’s role: Beijing’s support for or distance from Moscow could impact Russia’s economic resilience.

• Domestic politics in Europe: Public opinion on defense spending and sanctions could pressure governments to adjust their policies.

Conclusion: No Easy Endgame

Of the five possible outcomes, four are unfavorable to Ukraine, and only one envisions a decisive Russian setback. Even then, that scenario depends on factors far beyond the Alaska summit.

Experts caution against expecting a single meeting between Trump and Putin to end the war. Instead, they see the summit as a possible opening act in a longer diplomatic process — one that will only succeed if Ukraine has a central role.

As Nick Paton Walsh observed, “None of these scenarios will happen solely because of a private meeting between Trump and Putin — unless Ukraine is later brought into whatever is agreed.”

The stakes for August 15 could not be higher: the outcome may not just decide the fate of Ukraine, but also reshape NATO, the EU, and the post-Cold War security order for years to come.