F1 2023 season: Predictions, odds, betting tips and best bets for new Formula One campaign
Formula One finally returns on March 3 for its first full weekend of the new 2023 season with the 24th running of the Bahrain Grand Prix.
Back-to-back world champion Max Verstappen will be the man to beat again after he dominated throughout the 2022 campaign, winning his second title by a staggering 146 points.
His Red Bull team will also be keen to pick up where they left off after winning the 2022 Constructors’ Championship, though Ferrari and Mercedes will be hoping to eclipse their achievements this time around and fight back from their poor overall form last season.
Ahead of the action getting underway, The Sporting News goes through all of the odds to give you the best bets and tips for the upcoming 2023 Formula One season.
MORE: 2023 season calendar, list of circuits, fastest ever lap times and more
2023 F1 Drivers’ Championship odds
It’s not surprising to see that the bookmakers across the board have made Max Verstappen the favourite to win the 2023 Drivers’ Championship.
The Dutchman enters this season on the back of consecutive title winning campaigns, the last seeing him win the championship by a distance of 146 points as he and Red Bull dominated the season.
Interestingly, Lewis Hamilton is second favourite for the title despite him struggling through large parts of last season though he and Mercedes did finish the year stronger.
His teammate George Russell and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc are also expected to push the top pair all the way this season, priced at 5/1 apiece with SkyBet which could be great value for Leclerc in particular as he finished last campaign in P2.
Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez are priced as long shots at +2500 with BetMGM which could represent value, especially in the case of Perez. That’s because Red Bull could again dominant this season despite having less wind tunnel time during pre-season as a result of the Austrian team breaching cost cap regulations in 2022.
Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Neds (Australia). All odds correct as of February 14.
| Driver | BetMGM | Sports Interaction |
SkyBet | Neds |
| Max Verstappen | -138 | 1.67 | 5/6 | 1.73 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +333 | 4.22 | 3/1 | 4.00 |
| Charles Leclerc | +500 | 6.25 | 5/1 | 7.00 |
| George Russell | +800 | 8.21 | 5/1 | 7.00 |
| Carlos Sainz | +2500 | 29.00 | 25/1 | 26.00 |
| Sergio Perez | +2500 | 29.00 | 28/1 | 26.00 |
| Lando Norris | +10000 | 124.00 | 100/1 | 101 |
| Fernando Alonso | +10000 | 161.00 | 150/1 | 101 |
| Esteban Ocon | +25000 | 296.00 | 200/1 | 201 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 557.00 | 300/1 | 501 |
| Oscar Piastri | +100000 | 455.00 | 300/1 | 501 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +100000 | 1112.00 | 500/1 | 501 |
| Lance Stroll | +100000 | 1001.00 | 750/1 | 501 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +100000 | 770.00 | 1000/1 | 751 |
| Nico Hulkenburg | +100000 | – | 1000/1 | – |
| Nyck De Vries | +150000 | 2502.00 | 1000/1 | 1001 |
| Alex Albon | +200000 | 2502.00 | 2000/1 | 1001 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +200000 | 2502.00 | 2000/1 | 1001 |
| Logan Sargeant | +200000 | 2001.00 | 2000/1 | 1001 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +200000 | 2502.00 | 2000/1 | 1001 |
2023 F1 Constructors’ Championship odds
Given their domination last season, Red Bull are hot favourites to claim a second successive Constructors’ Championship title in 2023.
According to the bookmakers, they’ll face tough opposition in the form of Mercedes however, who are considered second favourites to win the team trophy despite the German team struggling throughout large periods of last season.
Ferrari remain off the pace in terms of odds to take their first Constructors’ Championship since 2008 this time around. That’s likely due to their severe reliability problems throughout 2022 which hugely frustrated drivers Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz as well as Tifosi fans worldwide.
| Constructor | BetMGM | Sports Interaction |
SkyBet | Neds |
| Red Bull | +100 | 1.90 | 1/1 | 1.91 |
| Mercedes | +140 | 2.35 | 6/5 | 2.25 |
| Ferrari | +400 | 6.50 | 6/1 | 7.00 |
| McLaren | +12500 | 126.00 | 80/1 | 101 |
| Alpine | +15000 | 126.00 | 100/1 | 126 |
| Alfa Romeo | +25000 | 351.00 | 200/1 | 301 |
| Aston Martin | +40000 | 501.00 | 300/1 | 251 |
| AlphaTauri | +50000 | 501.00 | 500/1 | 501 |
| Haas | +100000 | 901.00 | 500/1 | 1001 |
| Williams | +150000 | 2001.00 | 500/1 | 1501 |
2023 Formula One season predictions
Despite their lack of wind tunnel time coming into the 2023 season owing to their cap regulation breaches last season, it’s difficult to see anyone getting the better of Max Verstappen and Red Bull again throughout the new F1 campaign.
Granted, if Mercedes continue their upward trajectory from the second half of last season, the German team and especially Lewis Hamilton — due to his vast experience — could come close to Red Bull and currently have by far the strongest package on the grid.
It’ll be interesting to see how Ferrari react too. In the off-season they replaced former team principle Mattia Binotto with Alfa Romeo’s Frédéric Vasseur who did well in a team that seemed to have quite a low ceiling in recent years.
The new look backroom set up at the Italian team could prove perfect for number one driver Charles Leclerc, who secured plenty of points last season but was left extremely frustrated with his car’s poor reliability and his team’s constant strategic blunders on race day.
Sergio Perez, George Russell and Carlos Sainz will also all be eyeing taking the next step in their careers and securing P1 in the World Drivers’ Championship come the end of the 2023 season.
Elsewhere, French team Alpine look primed to trouble the top three constructors given their car’s lightning speed last season, whilst Aston Martin have added Fernando Alonso to their ranks which should give the British team a boost on the racetrack.
Expect Lando Norris to really challenge for his first victory in the sport as well this time around. He was ‘Mr Consistency’ throughout 2022, though his performances were largely let down by McLaren’s lack of pace on a consistent basis.
THE 2023 GRID IS COMPLETE! ✅
Bring on the season, we’re ready! 💪#F1 pic.twitter.com/FdT15YF7M2
— Formula 1 (@F1) February 16, 2023
2023 Formula One season: Best bet
- Pick: Max Verstappen to win Drivers’ Championship, Red Bull to win Constructors Championship
- Odds: 6/4 (SkyBet)
As mentioned before, it’s still so difficult to see anything other than a Verstappen/Red Bull double in 2023.
The Dutchman broke all sorts of records last year, including setting the new benchmark for most races won in a single F1 season with 15, and will likely carry that blistering form into this season.
He’ll be pushed of course by others, most notably rival Lewis Hamilton who is priced as the second favourite for the title, but Verstappen has consistently proven that he can handle the pressure now. Last season also saw him gain even more experience and as we’re sure even he’ll admit, learn how to better cope with situations on the race track.
Red Bull will also be aided in their quest for another constructors’ title by second driver Sergio Perez who finished P3 last season, though just three points behind Leclerc in P2. If it weren’t for reliability issues, he could have easily taken second spot for the season but even so, he remains quick on the track in most situations and is one of the most experienced drivers on the grid now Sebastian Vettel has left the sport.
2023 Formula One season prop bet
- Pick: 1+ driver not to be classified in each race
- Odds: 6/4 (SkyBet)
All but one race throughout last season saw at least one driver fail to be classified come the end of the event, and even that one saw Valtteri Bottas not actually finish the race.
In the new age of F1 where cars can follow others much more closely, it opens up far more possibilities of intense battling that can quite easily end in retirements, both through collisions and the sheer pressure the drivers put on their cars through races.
2023 Formula One season flier bet #1
- Pick: Mercedes double podium in 8+ races
- Odds: 2/1 (SkyBet)
One common preseason expectation for the forthcoming 2023 season is that Mercedes will be much stronger from the get go.
Mercedes really struggled during the early races of last season but finished strong towards the end to leave many thinking that they should be back for a Constructors’ Championship fight this time around.
With that considered and even though a tally of eight double podiums seems steep on the face of things, Mercedes secured three last season with all three coming in the second half of 2022 proceedings.
Drivers Lewis Hamilton and George Russell also proved consistent when their individual cars improved after last year’s midseason break so there’s definitely value to be had with this selection.
What a journey it’s been so far ✨#F1 @LewisHamilton pic.twitter.com/zjlyFRvt9A
— Formula 1 (@F1) February 20, 2023
2023 Formula One season flier bet #2
- Pick: Max Verstappen to win championship, Charles Leclerc to finish second
- Odds: 14/1 (SkyBet)
The value here comes from Leclerc to finish second in 2023 and ahead of teammate Sainz, Mercedes duo Hamilton and Russell and Red Bull’s Perez.
Verstappen P1 and Leclerc P2 was not only what a number of race weekends saw as the final result last season but it’s also what the 2022 Drivers’ Championship finished as.
Granted, Mercedes’ improvements throughout last season may see Leclerc pushed down the standings but write the Monegasque off at your own peril.
That’s because Ferrari have made personnel changes which should improve their strategic decisions this time around and because Leclerc did secure three race wins and 11 podiums last season thanks to some fantastic driving and great pace.
2023 Formula One season flier bet #3
- Pick: Verstappen to score points in every race
- Odds: 18/1 (SkyBet)
In Formula One, you have to be incredibly lucky to finish every race in a single season, though at 18/1 this bet offers really good value given that the Dutchman has taken points in 28 of his prior 30 races.
Last season saw his Red Bull twice DNF in the opening three rounds of the season but 19 straight finishes in the points paying positions gives this selection a real chance.
Couple that with the fact that teammate Sergio Perez only failed to finish in three races during the 2022 campaign and there’s a reasonable chance that Verstappen could take points in every single race this upcoming season thanks to the Austrian’s team reliability.
How to watch the 2023 Formula One season
| Country | TV Channel | Live Stream |
| USA | ESPN | ESPN+, fuboTV |
| UK | Sky Sports | SkyGo, NOW TV |
| Canada | TSN, RDS | TSN Direct |
| Australia | Fox Sports, Channel 10 | Kayo |
Published at Thu, 23 Feb 2023 16:38:00 +0000
